The Bills are in an interesting spot this week, potentially gambling their 2nd instantly recreation as double-digit domestic underdogs if the line remains at Bears -10 or higher. Though the Bills had been unable to cowl towards the Patriots on Monday night time, hopping on double-digit home ‘puppies has confirmed a profitable trend over time. The Pro-Football-Reference database turns up 183 times of a team being a double-digit home-canine, and people groups are cashing in at a 109-71-three clip, that is a higher than 60 per cent hit rate.
But the Bills are on target to be one among simplest 32 groups to be double-digit domestic ‘puppies multiple time in the equal season. And when you study the previous 31 times it takes place, you discover something interesting.
In the pattern length, which levels from the 1987 Falcons to the 2017 Browns, 27 of the 31 teams controlled to cover at least once as a double-digit ‘dog at domestic when they faced multiple times of the scenario within the equal season. Just 4 teams went oh-for, and one of those managed a push in one among their records points. As a group, the 31 teams went forty four-27-2, which is set a sixty-two percentage fee of masking. And again, extra than 87 per cent of those teams had at the least one cover.
The Bills are zero-1 as a double-digit domestic ‘canine in 2018. Will they be 1-1 after Sunday?
If you want to recognise which aspects I like this week, you can discover that information at the SportsLine hyperlink underneath, where all my rated plays seem all through the season alongside my 5 SuperContest alternatives every week and masses of superb evaluation from a great collection of experts. You can also check out wherein all our CBS Sports body of workers lands on every recreation each week right here.
Each week on this space, I’m going to go in the back of the lines and picks to carry you a chunk of a deeper dive into what you must recognise before locking to your performs. This week for the first time, I’m going recreation by using the game to reveal you the stats I’m considering now that we’re midway thru the season. That includes a 12-0 trend at the Seahawks that you’re going to need to learn about.
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However, you could get one loose pick out with my teaser of the week on the top of this article. Enjoy!
Raiders at 49ers (-2.Five)
Home-subject advantage: 2 points
Power rating line: 49ers -2
Lookahead line: 49ers -2.Five
Record vs. Unfold 2-five 2-6
Yards in step with play differential -0.8 -0.1
Points according to force offence rank 25 23
Points in step with power protection rank 31 25
Total DVOA -21.Three -23.7
Pass offence DVOA rank 9 25
Pass protection DVOA rank 31 22
Run offence DVOA rank 26 22
Run defence DVOA rank 26 20
The 49ers come into this sport as the more potent team in yards according to play and in points in keeping with pressure, but the Raiders have a moderate side in DVOA, thank you in large part to a top-10 passing assault in terms of efficiency. The 49ers aren’t precisely great at slowing down the pass, ranking 20th in net yards in keeping with the attempt on protection whilst allowing 18 passing TDs and coping with simply two interceptions.
My numbers deliver the 49ers a -factor domestic-discipline advantage, so in case you think the 49ers are a slightly better crew, this line makes the experience. I even have the 2 teams dead even in my energy rankings, which means I’d venture a line of 49ers -2. And there is not any movement of the lookahead line to bear in mind.
This game would possibly come all the way down to the 49ers’ injuries. Quarterback C.J. Beathard is questionable because of, a wrist harm on his throwing hand, and even if he plays it figures to be at less than one hundred per cent. The 49ers have additionally ruled out linebacker Reuben Foster and 2 safeties, while corner Richard Sherman and the group’s pinnacle two jogging backs are amongst other questionable gamers.
So which groups need to you again in Week eight of the NFL season? And which Super Bowl contender is going down hard? Visit SportsLine now to peer which groups are prevailing more than 50 per cent of simulations, all from the version that has outperformed ninety-eight percentage of experts tracked by means of NFLPickWatch.Com the past seasons.
Lions at Vikings (-4.5)
Home-subject gain: 4 points
Power scoreline: Vikings -eight.Five
Lookahead line: Vikings -6
Record vs. Spread five-2 4-three-1
Yards in keeping with play differential -zero.1 zero.1
Points per drive offence rank 12 21
Points in step with drive protection rank 27 thirteen
Total DVOA -19.8 -0.Three
Pass offence DVOA rank 20 17
Pass defence DVOA rank 30 16
Run offence DVOA rank 13 28
Run protection DVOA rank 30 10
The Vikings appear like they’re placing up strong factor totals week in and week out, however in keeping with points in keeping with force, they rank inside the back side 1/2 of the league. Their rush offence hasn’t been superb, and with a middle-of-the-p.C. Pass offence, it makes the experience that their numbers are lagging at the back of. But they now get the benefit of gambling a bad Lions defence that ranks 26th in net yards in line with strive, 30th in yards in step with bringing allowed and in the backside three in each skip and rushes DVOA.
The Lions will attempt to win this recreation with their offence, one it really is been relatively powerful running the ball. But the Vikings come in with a top-10 DVOA against the run and the 5th-fine yards-in line with-bring allowed inside the league. Throw inside the Lions’ high-quality adjusted sack rate facing an offensive line that has had problems in safety, and this could be a recreation in which factors are at a top rate.
With the Vikings getting a 4-point bump for a robust domestic-discipline advantage, they simplest need to be a point higher than the Lions on an impartial discipline to cause them to a value play. Yet my electricity scores have a five-point hole among the two teams it truly is additionally contemplated within the standard DVOA distinction among them.
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